Consumer Credit Increases Faster than Expected
Running ahead of expectations, total consumer
credit outstanding increased by 7.3% ($20.7 billion) over the month in June to
$3.42 trillion (seasonally adjusted, annualized rate). Consumer credit in May
was revised slightly upward from a gain of $16.1 billion to $16.6 billion. Over
the 12 months ending in June, total non-mortgage consumer debt was up by 6.5%.
Both revolving and non-revolving debt posted gains
last month. Non-revolving debt,
which is composed mainly of auto and student loans, increased by 7.3% or by
$15.2 billion. Over the year ending in June, non-revolving debt was up by 7.7%
to $2.5 trillion. A major driver of non-revolving debt, student loans rose
sharply during the recession and in the years since, have shown little sign of
backing off. Since student loan debt was first included in the consumer credit
report back in 2006, they have nearly tripled.
Revolving
debt, primarily spending on credit cards rose by 7.4%
to $9 billion and was up over the year by 3.5%. In spite of substantial and
continuing improvements in the labor markets, consumers are not shopping like
they used to. Revolving debt is still 11.3% below peak levels reached before
the recession.
On a year-over-year basis, consumer debt growth is
slowing but remains healthy. Low interest rates and further gains in employment
will help consumer spending and borrowing, but will only go so far while weak
wage gains remain a restraint on spending for many households.
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